Friday, 4 January 2013

Predicting Countdown's 30th Anniversary Tournament (Part 2)

This post summarizes the findings of my Countdown 30th anniversary tournament predictions, the background to which can be found here. Below are the top 10 favourites, complete with their online ratings and their rank (out of 41) of all those competing.

Name Rating Rank Win %
Conor Travers 2099 2 20%
Innis Carson 2100 1 15%
Jack Worsley 1992 5 12%
Chris Davies 1998 4 10%
Jack Hurst 2015 3 9%
Steven Briers 1960 8 8%
Kirk Bevins 1988 6 6%
Mark Deeks 1964 7 5%
Jon O'Neill 1847 13 3%
Edward McCullagh 1873 10 2%

Conor Travers and Innis Carson are the top two ranked players in the field, and the top two favourites for the title. Perhaps surprisingly, Travers is 5% more likely to win than Carson, despite their near-identical ratings and Travers having to play an extra game (having been drawn into a preliminary match). This reflects the challenge facing Carson during the first two rounds, where he faces the number 8 and (probably) number 6 seeds before meeting number 2 seed Travers in the quarter-final.

Full results can be found here where, should you feel so inclined, you can play around with the ratings and see how things change.

No comments:

Post a Comment