Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Euro 2012: How deadly is the group of death?

Much (well, some) has been made of the Euro 2012 draw last Friday, where thanks in part to co-hosts Poland and Ukraine being the top two seeds a rather nasty looking 'group of death' formed. Group B sees the Netherlands, Germany, Portugal and Denmark pitted against one another, with certainly three of the four capable of winning the tournament. But how deadly are we talking?

It gets interesting if you compare the latest UEFA rankings with the latest FIFA ones which are very similar (about 95% correlation) but not identical. Highlights include Portugal, who are ranked 11th by UEFA, but are the 5th best European team according to FIFA The table below summarises the Euro 2012 groups with each team's UEFA and FIFA ranking (where I've filtered out all the non-UEFA teams). (Click for a full-resolution version.)

Based on FIFA rankings, group B is indeed the deadliest, with an average country ranking of 4.5 (and, interestingly, every team a higher rank than any in group A). According to UEFA, however, it's not group B but group C - home to the Republic of Ireland - which is the hardest, although there is very little to choose between the two.
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5 comments:

  1. Neuroskeptic7 December 2011 at 13:25

    Interesting. The difference is driven by Portugal being ranked very differently by the two systems. So which is deadliest depends on which one you trust. But I think we can all agree that there's not much in it and that we should be thankfu to be in D!

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  2. Deuce7 December 2011 at 13:53

    I think Portugal are overrated these days and flattered by their FIFA ranking. On the other hand, Denmark are perpetually underrated. All the same, unless something goes seriously wrong it should be the Dutch and Germans going through from that group.

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  3. Deuce7 December 2011 at 13:58

    Additionally: groups are often more surprising when the teams are closer in ability than when there's one clear minnow. Group D is the one I'd be watching- none of those teams are what they were but they are all capable and at least three of them roughly on a par. England and France could easily go out there, although I don't think anyone's expecting that...

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  4. Michael7 December 2011 at 14:29

    Yep, Portugal are pretty much the key (and to a very slight extent Italy too). I'm told there's some Fink Tank work somewhere showing that your group draw doesn't really affect your chances of winning the tournament (which isn't really that surprising when one thinks about it), but I've not been able to find it.

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  5. Michael13 December 2011 at 07:02

    This comment has been removed by the author.

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